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<h2 style="white-space:pre-line">A Premier Asset Management Firm</h2>
Welcome to Volyard, a Toronto-based hedge fund committed to delivering unique insights and partnerships for sophisticated global institutional investors. Our investment process combines cutting-edge technology with timeless investment principles to understand and navigate global markets and economies, creating sustainable wealth for our clients.
Our community of independent thinkers is dedicated to excellence, fostering a culture of openness, transparency, and inclusion. We empower our team to challenge consensus and bring innovative ideas to life, ensuring we remain at the forefront of the investment industry.

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NEWS AND PERSPECTIVES

The US economy is exhibiting clear signs of a slowdown, as evidenced by the latest June PMI data. Both the services and manufacturing sectors have entered contraction territory, with significant drops in key metrics such as new orders and employment. At the same time, the Federal Reserve continues its battle against inflation, and the recent PMI data supports signs of easing inflationary pressures. The stock market continued its abnormal trend of reacting positively to negative development in the economy, with investors more convinced in 2 rate cuts by the end of 2024, leading S&amp;P500 and Nasdaq to reach all time high on Friday.<h3>Purchasing Manager's Index</h3>The June PMI data presents a stark picture of the US economy's current state. The services sector PMI plunged from 53.8 in May to 48.8 in June, marking the first contraction in business activity in four years. New orders in the services sector also contracted for the first time in over a year, while the employment index continued its five-month streak of declines. The manufacturing sector followed suit, with its PMI falling to 48.5, indicating a continuous contraction that has now lasted for three consecutive months, and persistent contraction for 19 out of the past 20 months.Services Sector PMI: The significant drop to 48.8 reflects a sharp decline in business activity, with new orders and employment indices also contracting. This suggests a cooling demand and increasing caution among service providers. Manufacturing Sector PMI: The manufacturing sector's PMI of 48.5 underscores the ongoing challenges faced by this sector. New orders and production levels have both entered the contraction zone, indicating reduced demand and production cuts. New Orders and Employment: Both indices show worrying signs of weakening demand and labor market conditions. The new orders index for manufacturing slightly rebounded but remained below 50, while the employment index fell back into contraction.<h3>ADP Employment:</h3>Initial unemployment claims have continued to rise, with the latest figures slightly exceeding market expectations. The ADP report showed a decrease in new jobs to 150,000, marking the lowest increase in four months. Meanwhile, job vacancies experienced a slight rebound but remain below the peaks seen earlier in the year.The ADP National Employment Report for June revealed an increase of 150,000 jobs, a decline from May's 157,000. This was the lowest increase in the past four months, indicating a slowdown in job creation. Particularly, the added 136,000 jobs, saw a reduction compared to the previous month. This slowdown in job creation reflects businesses' increasing caution amid economic uncertainties.<h3>Fed Policy Making Likely Turn Dovish</h3>The easing inflationary pressures indicated by the PMI data are crucial for Federal Reserve policy making. As inflation shows signs of abating, the Fed is likely to gain confidence in moderating its aggressive monetary stance. The market anticipated rate cuts in September and December align with the observed trends, suggesting that the Fed is preparing to shift towards a more accommodative policy to support the economy as it slows down. The decline in ADP employment growth further supports the Fed's cautious approach, as it highlights a cooling labor market that could reduce inflationary pressures.&nbsp;The stock market reacted positively, with Nasdaq and S&amp;P500 reaching all time high on Friday. However, investors should still be cautious of the High for Longer case of US Central Bank interest rate policy, as our previous studies showed signs of elevated long-term central bank neutral rate.&nbsp;

Contraction - Dovish - All Time High

The geopolitical turmoil following the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has led to a series of extensive sanctions by Western nations against Russia. This analysis provides a comprehensive review of these sanctions, Russia’s countermeasures, and the broader macroeconomic impacts. It aims to offer our internal research teams a nuanced understanding of these dynamics to inform strategic decision-making.Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures1. Financial Sanctions: Western countries have implemented robust financial sanctions targeting Russia’s economic infrastructure. These include freezing Russian assets, restricting access to international financing, and excluding major Russian banks from the SWIFT system. The US, for instance, added numerous Russian entities to the SDN list, effectively immobilizing their assets and barring transactions with US entities. The removal of key Russian banks from SWIFT has significantly disrupted Russia’s ability to conduct international financial transactions​​.2. Trade Sanctions: Trade sanctions have focused on critical sectors, including energy, technology, and defense. The EU and G7 have revoked Russia’s most-favored-nation status, resulting in higher tariffs on Russian exports. The EU has also imposed bans on importing Russian coal, steel, and specific luxury goods, while restricting the export of advanced technologies and aviation fuel to Russia​​.3. Russian Countermeasures: In retaliation, Russia has enacted several countermeasures, such as the "ruble settlement order" for energy exports, imposing capital controls, and increasing the use of alternative financial systems like SPFS and MIR. Additionally, Russia has intensified its economic ties with non-Western countries, significantly boosting trade with China by 29.3% in 2022, achieving a bilateral trade volume of $190.27 billion​​.Russian FX Market Traded Currency Pairs<figure id="figure-iapo1ls6pcly20am55"><img id="iapo1ls6pcly20am55" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/38W722MCUExp0YRzhTmKbLiSftCWkQroVzof2FcebTJF665IP6lQSXdbx3kbuVgc.png" alt="" title="" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 rounded-sm md:rounded-md lg:rounded-lg" style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: undefined undefined;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionx="undefined" data-positiony="undefined" data-fullwidth="false" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/38W722MCUExp0YRzhTmKbLiSftCWkQroVzof2FcebTJF665IP6lQSXdbx3kbuVgc.png" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: undefined undefined;"></figure>Macroeconomic Impacts1. Currency and Inflation: The sanctions precipitated a sharp depreciation of the Russian ruble, leading to heightened inflationary pressures. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI showed marked increases​​. The Russian Central Bank’s aggressive interventions, including substantial interest rate hikes and stringent capital controls, were pivotal in stabilizing the ruble and curbing inflation.2. Trade and Investment: Trade volumes have declined due to export restrictions and disrupted supply chains. However, Russia’s pivot towards non-Western partners, particularly China, has partially mitigated these effects. Notably, Russia’s industrial and trade sectors experienced contractions of 11% and 9-10%, respectively, by March 2022​​.3. Domestic Economy: Despite the severe sanctions, Russia’s domestic economy has shown resilience. Initial projections of a drastic economic downturn have been tempered by proactive governmental measures and the economy’s inherent adaptability. Russia’s GDP contracted by only 1.2% in 2022, significantly less severe than the anticipated 8.8% decline​​.<figure id="figure-sikdtv9dd9ly210weg"><img id="sikdtv9dd9ly210weg" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/2d4XlPRcbI4oeUisVseD0gjihGREgY9AEdnBxyakjNyKawDPuVNwROhfo91Yuxvp.png" alt="Dollar bill" title="Dollar bill" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 rounded-sm md:rounded-md lg:rounded-lg" style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionX="undefined" data-positionY="undefined" data-fullWidth="false"/></figure>Asset Performance and Investment Strategies1. Commodities: The conflict initially caused a significant surge in commodity prices, particularly for gold and oil. Brent crude prices peaked at $128 per barrel in early March 2022, and the CRB Commodity Index saw substantial gains​​. This marks the potential impact of military confrontation of major resource export countries to commodity prices.2. Fixed Income: The Russian fixed-income market has faced increased volatility, with bond yields rising due to heightened risk perceptions. The high-interest rate environment has created attractive opportunities for investors seeking higher yields, especially in Russian sovereign and corporate bonds.3. Equities: Russian equities have experienced significant declines, reflecting widespread economic uncertainty. The stock market’s recovery is highly contingent on geopolitical developments and potential easing of sanctions. Currently, the Russian stock market has been steadily increasing since March 2023.4. Real Estate: Unexpectedly, the Russian real estate market has remained robust. Increased money supply and capital inflows into real estate have driven property prices higher. The residential property price index has increased post-conflict, indicating a shift towards tangible assets as a safer investment​​. ConclusionThe sanctions imposed on Russia by Western nations and the subsequent macroeconomic impacts highlight the need for a comprehensive and adaptive investment strategy. By understanding the intricate details of these sanctions and their broader effects, investors can better navigate the complexities of the global investment landscape. The resilience demonstrated by the Russian economy, combined with its strategic countermeasures, provides critical insights and opportunities for informed policy-making and investment decisions in similar future events.

Revisiting Sanctions: Analyzing Western Economic Pressure on Russia

The first round of the US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden has set the stage for a highly contentious election season. Both candidates presented starkly different visions for the country's future, making this debate crucial for investors looking to anticipate policy impacts on the market. Here, we analyze who had an edge in this debate, the nuances of their performances, and what that means for investment strategies.Debate Performance: Trump vs. Biden <figure id="figure-9j4yv4lsb9ly1zfdnp"><img id="9j4yv4lsb9ly1zfdnp" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/17pt8vKuRkPrpCEEvECTOrhyBUtkOZKP1kfZoR7WGSpiuLH2cI6FcUObPjPSWAyS.jpg" alt="Daytrading bitcoins financial markets at a coffeeshop." title="Daytrading bitcoins financial markets at a coffeeshop." class="object-cover bg-gray-100 rounded-sm md:rounded-md lg:rounded-lg" style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionx="undefined" data-positiony="undefined" data-fullwidth="false" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/17pt8vKuRkPrpCEEvECTOrhyBUtkOZKP1kfZoR7WGSpiuLH2cI6FcUObPjPSWAyS.jpg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;"></figure>Donald Trump's Performance:Strengths: Trump focused heavily on his administration's economic achievements, emphasizing the pre-pandemic economic boom, tax cuts, and deregulation. His assertive and often combative style aimed to project confidence and capability. Trump repeatedly pointed to the stock market's performance under his administration, aiming to reassure investors of continued growth and stability should he be re-elected. Weaknesses: However, Trump's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic came under scrutiny, with Biden criticizing the administration's response. Trump's aggressive debating style might have appealed to his base but risked alienating undecided voters. Additionally, his interruptions and attacks on Biden could be perceived as a lack of decorum, potentially impacting his appeal among more moderate voters.Joe Biden's Performance:Strengths: Biden positioned himself as a unifier, emphasizing the need for steady leadership and compassion. He highlighted plans to tackle climate change, healthcare, and social inequality, appealing to a broad demographic. Biden’s calm demeanor and focus on policy details aimed to contrast with Trump’s more aggressive approach, potentially making him more appealing to undecided and moderate voters.Weaknesses: Despite his efforts, Biden struggled to dominate the debate stage. His calm demeanor sometimes came across as lackluster, and he missed opportunities to strongly counter Trump’s points. Critics argue that Biden's performance might have left doubts about his ability to effectively implement his policies, potentially diminishing his appeal to undecided voters. His occasional stumbles and less aggressive rebuttals could be seen as a sign of weakness, possibly impacting investor confidence in his leadership. Implications for Investment Strategies Policy Differences and Market Impact:Trump’s Edge:Market-Friendly Policies: Trump's focus on continued tax cuts and deregulation is likely to favor market growth, particularly benefiting sectors such as technology, finance, and manufacturing. His commitment to reducing regulatory burdens could enhance corporate profitability and drive stock prices higher, particularly in industries historically burdened by regulation. Infrastructure Plans: His infrastructure investment proposals could boost the construction and industrial sectors, offering significant investment opportunities. Investors might find attractive opportunities in companies poised to benefit from government contracts and increased infrastructure spending. Biden’s Edge:Renewable Energy and Climate Initiatives: Biden’s commitment to renewable energy and climate change policies could drive growth in green technologies, making clean energy stocks attractive. His plans to rejoin the Paris Agreement and invest in sustainable infrastructure could create long-term growth prospects in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and other environmentally focused sectors. Healthcare and Social Programs: Expansion of healthcare and social programs could benefit the healthcare sector, providing long-term investment opportunities. Biden's emphasis on expanding access to healthcare and reducing drug prices might boost sectors like pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and health services.<figure id="figure-hauxf1zb0nly1zj453"><img id="hauxf1zb0nly1zj453" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/38r49RnbuAEXJfssBRWjYUPsiIJ8IN05OJDZWI0ZSFjNaR5HgPq6lY1uRWQjCO4a.jpg" alt="GME Stock Chart on Robinhood App! | Via techdaily.ca | #stocks #finance #investing #gme #stonks #citadel " title="GME Stock Chart on Robinhood App! | Via techdaily.ca | #stocks #finance #investing #gme #stonks #citadel " class="object-cover bg-gray-100 rounded-sm md:rounded-md lg:rounded-lg" style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionX="undefined" data-positionY="undefined" data-fullWidth="false"/></figure>Market Sentiment:Trump’s Base Appeal: Trump's debate performance reinforced his appeal to his base, likely stabilizing his support among investors favoring his economic policies. His consistent messaging on economic growth and market performance could reassure investors looking for continuity and predictability.Biden’s Broader Appeal: Biden’s performance aimed at unifying the electorate, potentially attracting undecided voters and fostering a more stable political environment, which markets generally favor. However, his less assertive debate performance and the perceived challenges in executing his policy agenda might temper investor enthusiasm.ConclusionIn this first round of the debate, Trump seemed to have an edge over Biden, particularly in terms of projecting confidence and assertiveness. Trump’s emphasis on economic strength and deregulation appeals to investors looking for market-friendly policies, while Biden’s focus on renewable energy and social programs offers long-term growth potential in emerging sectors. However, Biden's less aggressive approach and perceived execution challenges in the debate could be seen as disadvantages, potentially impacting investor confidence in his policy effectiveness.Investors should consider these dynamics when adjusting their portfolios. The outcome of the election could significantly influence market conditions, making it crucial to stay informed and agile in response to political developments. By aligning investment strategies with potential policy changes, we can better navigate the uncertainties of the election season.

Investing in Your Future

A Premier Asset Management Firm

NEWS AND PERSPECTIVES

Contraction - Dovish - All Time High

Revisiting Sanctions: Analyzing Western Economic Pressure...

Investment Insights from the First US Presidential Debate...